Disney / Lucasfilm’s latest ‘Star Wars’ film, ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu,’ fell short this weekend, making it the lowest ‘Star Wars’ opening weekend of all time. For the three-day opening, it came in below ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ at $82 million domestically. ‘Solo’ was able to hit $2 million more in 2018 (or $26 million more when adjusting for inflation).
Overall ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu” hit $82 million for the 3-day weekend and is estimated to do $102 million for the four-day weekend. Solo hit $104 million on Memorial Day weekend eight years ago, putting it ahead by $2 million (or $33.9 million when adjusting for inflation).
Similar money but fewer people
Some outlets were saying that the average ticket prices for ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ were around $16 because 41% of the audience saw the film in IMAX or other upscaled (and upcharged) theaters. This sounds like a “win,” but it really isn’t. It simply means that over 40% of the audience paid higher than average ticket prices to see the film, meaning that the box office made that much money with fewer attendees. Not really great news for the franchise.
High Audience Scores and Cinema Score but Low Attendance
‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ is scoring high with audiences, earning an “A-” Cinemascore and an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this isn’t bringing in people to see the film.
Overall, the movie is good, even if it feels like Season 4 of the show, but that hasn’t been enough to convince people to get themselves to the movies. Disney’s hope is that “word-of-mouth” will entice others to watch, but only time will tell. The big issue is other movies coming out in the next few weeks, including ‘Masters of the Universe’ and ‘Scary Movie 6’ on June 5; ‘Disclosure Day’ on June 12; ‘Toy Story 5’ on June 19; and ‘Supergirl’ on June 26.
A lot of competition is coming, so ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ only have about two weeks of breathing room until the summer box office “oxygen” is sucked out of the room.
Will ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ break even?
This is the big question everyone is asking. While the film’s budget was only around $165 million, the marketing for this one is estimated to be as high as $200 million. Even a reasonable amount of $100 million means the film needs to bring in at least $500 million to break even (after theatrical cuts, residuals, and more).
Given that globally the film is expected to bring in around $165 million for the four-day weekend, it will need to dig out about 3X that to break even.
Disney has indicated that they feel merchandise sales, digital, and Disney+ subscriptions to see the film will make up some of the losses later. But the optics aren’t great.
‘Star Wars’ has fallen further and further away from the billion-dollar box offices it used to command as fans grow tired of the constant Disney+ shows and lackluster films, leading to brand fatigue.
If rumors about the “Starfighter” film being a lead into a Rey film are true, Disney may have even more failure on the horizon if audiences don’t support something tied to the divisive sequel trilogy.
What do you think? Comment and let us know.
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