‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ box office estimates have more ups and downs than Space Mountain. Early reports indicated a weak 4-day opening for the film, but then those numbers were adjusted up significantly, and now they are back down again. Leadership is not meeting up, could this be to course correct?
How bad is the tracking?
According to The Hollywood Reporter, the new ‘Star Wars’ film is only tracking for about $80 million for the 4-day weekend. Not 3 days, but 4 days. Meaning for a 3-day period, it is likely looking at about $65-$70 million.
THR admits sources are telling them that this is what Disney and Lucasfilm are expecting internally!
This is not good!
‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ could become the lowest box office performer for the franchise
Prior to this film, ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ was the worst-performing film in the franchise, and now ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ could be headed for a far worse opening.
‘Solo’ opened to $84.4 million for the standard 3-day window, and it hit $103 million for the 4-day weekend total.
Meaning if ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ could do less in 4 days than ‘Solo’ did in 3. This isn’t even adjusted for inflation, as ‘Solo’ hit theaters eight years ago (2018), and before ‘Star Wars’ ended up worse off with ‘The Rise of Skywalker’ and the oversaturation of Disney+.
This is NOT the way!
Disney pushing the movie
With May the Fourth coming on Monday, Disney is getting ready to ramp up promotion for the film. However, they have been out there for weeks already, trying to drum up interest that doesn’t seem to be there.
A lot of people think this film will be the fourth season of a show that hasn’t been popular since its second season in 2020-2021.
The original trilogy and moves at Disneyland to reskin parts of Galaxy’s Edge to the era of Han, Luke, and Leia, is what fans are excited about. (In surprise to NO ONE.)
Disney is even going back to Fortnite in an attempt to drum up interest in this film, releasing 10 minutes of the movie on “The Mandalorian and Grogu Watch Party Island” three days before the film opens.
Disney meetings with Lucasfilm
A recent photo posted by Dana Walden shows new CEO Josh D’Amaro and COO Dana Walden, meeting with Lucasfilm leadership, including new Lucasfilm Co-Presidents Dave Filoni and Lynwen Brennan, in the “Rebel Hideout” (the lounge) at Lucasfilm.
This has led to speculation that meetings are going on to try to course-correct the franchise, which once ruled the galaxy. ‘Star Wars’ was the biggest thing ever, and now they may not hit $80 million on Memorial Day weekend.
Frankly, I’m not sure what they can do at this point.
This is how badly Disney has managed ‘Star Wars,’ and it breaks my heart!
We shall see how this all goes, but it’s not looking great for ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’, but if it is good, they might be able to coast on a longer tail.
What do you think? Comment and let us know!
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