Disney has an issue with “Star Wars,” and that became even more apparent this weekend as “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is expected to drop between 60% and 69% at the box office, putting it in third place behind indie films.
It could also end up in third place, behind two independent horror films, “Obsession” and “Backrooms”.
“Obsession”, a film that cost under $1 million, already knocked out “The Mandalorian and Grogu” from the top spot on Wednesday. That wasn’t even a week after opening for “Star Wars” return to the big screen. Something like this would have been unthinkable ten years ago.
While “The Mandalorian and Grogu” will likely see a huge box office drop in week two, “Obsession” jumped 39% in its second week in theaters.
“Obsession” had a production budget of under $1 million, while “The Mandalorian and Grogu” has an estimated budget of $165 million. After accounting for advertising costs and theatrical cuts, industry experts estimate that the “Star Wars” film needs to generate at least $500 million to break even.
“Backrooms” has gained a lot of buzz and is expected to dominate this weekend with $85 to $88 million for its debut weekend.
If this happens, “Backrooms” would beat “The Mandalorian and Grogu” for the opening 3-day weekend totals.
All this means “The Mandalorian and Grogu” will hit third place in its second weekend.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” doesn’t have hope for another boost
Next week the box office will heat up even more with the release of “Masters of the Universe” and “Scary Movie 6,” which could push out “The Mandalorian and Grogu” from the top spots entirely.
“Masters of the Universe” is likely not going to do that well, with estimates at around $35 million for its opening weekend. “Scary Movie 6” is faring better, with estimates around $50 million for opening.
Those are not great totals, but they are likely enough to push down “The Mandalorian and Grogu” even further. But so far they have hit about $200 million globally, but they still need twice that or more to break even. This is not the way.
A “Star Wars” film was wiped out from the top spot in less than a week. This is where “Star Wars” has ended up under Disney. Maybe they should have been more like Paramount and listened to fans instead of doubling down on unpopular choices. But here we are.
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