The new Star Wars film, The Mandalorian and Grogu, is set to release in less than a month. Recently updated box office predictions have raised the opening weekend total from $71- $85 million to $90 – $100 million. This would be the lowest opening since Solo: A Star Wars Story. Until this new estimate was released, it looked like The Mandalorian and Grogu could come in under that one as well.
These are only estimates, and the film could do better or worse than these predictions. For example, Tron: Ares was estimated to bring in $42-$46 million at opening and only did $33.5 million. While other films like Project Hail Mary opened to $80.5 million, well above the projected $63 million opening. It can fluctuate.
Why is it tracking relatively low?
There are likely a couple of reasons this film is tracking low for such a huge franchise.
1. The Mandalorian and Grogu is based on the streaming show The Mandalorian from Disney+.
It can be seen as having a barrier to entry, expecting people to be familiar with the three seasons of the show. But the popularity of this show has declined significantly since it launched in late 2019. The show was reportedly based on the scrapped Boba Fett film.
A Mandalorian film would have performed far better a few years ago when it was a the height of popularity. By the third season, viewership had already declined significantly. With reports that the Season 3 premiere saw 250 million fewer U.S. households tune in than the Season 2 premiere. By the finale of Season 3, it was down to half as many watchers as the end of Season 2.
2. Many seem tired of Star Wars in general.
Another huge problem facing Disney / Lucasfilm is the fandom. A lot of people left after Disney’s sequel trilogy, and even more have stopped caring after the onslaught of Disney+ shows. Each show seems to perform worse than the previous one.
Disney doubled down on “its” Star Wars even with the Galaxy’s Edge Star Wars-themed parks at Disneyland and Walt Disney World. They were originally meant to be based on the original trilogy of films, but Bob Iger and Kathleen Kennedy changed the plan. Now, Disney is changing part of the land back to the original trilogy in Disneyland.
I’m not sure how well The Mandalorian and Grogu will do when it opens on May 22, 2026. I’m more inclined to think it might break even and make a bit of money, but I doubt it will be a gigantic “win” and will “restore the franchise” to what it was before Disney tapped it out. But the projections did go up, so we shall see.
What do you think? Comment and let us know!
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