TRON: Ares Opening Day Lower Than Morbius! There’s No Way This Jared Leto Flick Will Hit Projected $45 Million.

Disney’s Tron: Ares stumbled with a lackluster $14.3 million opening day on Friday, October 10, 2025, trailing the infamous Morbius debut and casting serious doubt on its $45 million weekend projection for the $180 million sci-fi sequel. As the third chapter in the neon-soaked Tron saga, Ares aimed to dazzle as a fall tentpole, flipping the franchise’s digital world into a real-world AI invasion led by Jared Leto’s Ares. But with soft ticket sales, a 54% Rotten Tomatoes score, and a B+ CinemaScore, the film’s domestic fizzle echoes Morbius’ misfire and lags behind Tron: Legacy’s inflation-adjusted glory.

Can international markets save the Grid, or is Disney’s cult IP facing derezzed dreams?

Here’s the TL;DR…

• Opening Day Flop: Tron: Ares earned $14.3M Friday (including previews), trailing Morbius’ $39.1M 3-day, signaling a weekend under $40M, below $45M–$50M hopes.

• Legacy Lag: Tron: Legacy’s $44M 2010 debut (~$65M in 2025 dollars) dwarfs Ares’ projected $35M–$37M.

• Morbius Mirror: Morbius’ $39.1M opening (~$43M adjusted) highlights Ares’ struggles with mixed reviews and niche appeal.

• Inflation Insights: Original Tron (1982) opened at $4.7M (~$15.5M today); Ares needs $450M+ global to break even.

• Outlook Doom: A B+ CinemaScore aids legs, but weak domestic turnout means international markets must carry the load.

Friday Fizzle: Tron: Ares Hits the Wall at $14.3 Million

Ares’ $14.3 million Friday haul, including $4.8 million from Thursday previews, secured the No. 1 spot across 4,000 North American theaters but fell flat against expectations. Pre-release tracking from Variety and Deadline projected a $40M–$50M three-day fueled by IMAX premiums and franchise nostalgia.

Saturday estimates now peg $35M–$37M, per Deadline, a 20–25% shortfall. This $180 million production (pre-marketing) faces a steep climb to profitability. International markets like France, Korea, Australia, and Brazil add $40M–$45M this frame (China opens October 17), but domestic woes, lagging walk-ups, absent family crowds, and soft fan turnout despite Leto’s push and Jeff Bridges’ Flynn cameo signal trouble.

Analysts cite a packed October slate, with Paramount’s Roofman ($8M–$10M projected) stealing adult viewers. “Post-Covid moviegoing is fractured,” said Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian in Variety. “Nostalgia doesn’t pack theaters when streaming competes.” Ares’ B+ CinemaScore matches Legacy’s, but a 54% critics score caps multipliers at roughly 2.5x, pointing to a $90M–$100M domestic total, far from breakeven.

Morbius Déjà Vu: A Sci-Fi Stumble

The Morbius comparison stings. Sony’s 2022 Jared Leto-led flop opened to $39.1 million domestically, reaching $167 million worldwide on an $83 million budget, barely profitable post-ancillaries. Adjusted for inflation (2022 CPI: 292.655 to 2025’s 323.976, about 10.7% increase), that’s roughly $43.3 million today.

Ares’ $14.3M Friday paces behind Morbius’ 3-day debut, echoing familiar issues: star-driven hype, dense lore, and visuals over story. Morbius tanked with a D+ CinemaScore and 15% Rotten Tomatoes rating, spawning “It’s Morbin’ Time” memes and a failed $300K re-release. Ares fares better, with fans praising Nine Inch Nails’ score and Joachim Rønning’s action, but risks the same niche trap. SuperHeroHype put it bluntly: “Fans show, casuals pass.”

A $35M–$37M weekend would trail Morbius’ raw debut by 10–15%, a grim marker for Disney’s pricier gamble. Sony pivoted post-Morbius toward Venom sequels; Ares’ stumble could stall Tron 4 indefinitely.

Legacy Blues: Tron: Legacy’s Adjusted Edge

Tron: Legacy (2010) opened to $44 million ($17.5M Friday), reaching $172M domestic and $400M global on a $170 million budget. Its B+ CinemaScore and 51% critics score drove 3.9x legs, boosted by holiday crowds and Daft Punk’s unforgettable soundtrack.

Adjusted for inflation (2010 CPI: 218.056 to 2025’s 323.976, about 48.6%), that’s about $65.4 million. Ares’ $35M–$37M projection is a 43–46% drop from that adjusted number, despite 15 years of technological progress and a timely AI theme.

The original Tron (1982) opened to $4.7 million on a $28M budget and earned $50M global. Adjusted (1982 CPI: 96.5 to 2025’s 323.976, about 235.7%), that’s $15.5 million. Ares’ Friday barely tops it, a warning sign of franchise decay.

Legacy thrived post-Avatar with the 3D boom; Ares lands in a streaming-heavy 2025 where event films like Oppenheimer and Dune: Part Two dominate discourse. BoxOffice Pro’s Shawn Robbins attributes it to “franchise fatigue”: “Tron’s cult status fuels merch, not theaters.”

Reviews call Ares’ characters “thin” (Polygon) and “nostalgic but hollow” (Variety’s Peter Debruge), lacking Legacy’s EDM-inspired energy.

Inflation Crunch: The Budget Trap

Inflation underscores Ares’ problem. Legacy’s $44M debut equals $65M today; Morbius’ $39.1M equals $43M; Tron’s $4.7M equals $15.5M. Ares’ $180M budget (6% above Legacy’s) requires $450M–$540M globally to break even using the standard 2.5–3x multiplier. A $90M domestic finish demands $360M+ overseas, ambitious for a U.S.-centric IP.

Legacy earned $228M international (57%); Morbius managed $112M (67%). Analysts like Koimoi’s Luiz Fernando forecasted a $80M–$90M global open, but Saturday revisions dropped that to $75M. Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro summed it up: “It’s an international prayer.”

After Lightyear’s $226M flop, another Disney misfire could shelve Tron again.

Why Ares Glitched: Market and Marketing Woes

2025’s box office is up 5% year-over-year but lacks consistent tentpole heat. Ares’ marketing — Leto’s intensity versus Greta Lee’s subdued Eve Kim — missed families, according to NRG tracking. Roofman (Channing Tatum’s dramedy) and horror juggernaut The Conjuring: Last Rites ($459M WW) split attention.

Tron’s dense lore (and the continued absence of its namesake hero, per Bruce Boxleitner’s criticisms) alienates newcomers. ScreenRant quipped: “Ares breaks records? Only for ‘underwhelm.’” Still, IMAX showings (20% of sales) and the Nine Inch Nails score could help build slow-burn traction, Dune-style.

Verdict: Grid Down or Reboot Hope?

Ares won’t hit $45M; $35M–$37M is locked. It’s a Morbius-lite flop trailing Legacy’s inflation-adjusted $65M. Disney faces a $180M lesson: cult IPs need careful revival, not overreach.

International markets may soften the blow, but a domestic stumble this steep could derezz Tron 4’s future. As Flynn might say, “The Grid’s brutal.”

Will Ares reboot the franchise or crash it for good? Fans, hit theaters; the code’s fading.

Hat Tips

• Variety — “Box Office: Tron: Ares Off to Dim Start With $14.3M Friday, Roofman Solid at $4.2M”

• Deadline — “Box Office: Tron: Ares Eyes Mid-to-High $30M Opening”

• Box Office Mojo — “Tron: Legacy (2010)”

• The Numbers — “Morbius (2022)”

• US Inflation Calculator — “Inflation Data 1913–2025”

• ScreenRant — “Tron: Ares Gaming To Break Franchise’s Box Office Record In New Projections”

• Variety — “Box Office: Tron: Ares Kicks Off With $4.8M in Thursday Previews”

• Koimoi — “Tron: Ares Box Office Projection”