Disney has been seeing many failures at the box office lately. Most films barely break even, and ‘Haunted Mansion’ reportedly lost at least $200 million. Their one hope is resting on Marvel’s “The Marvels” film, releasing in November. However, they will face a steep hill to recoup costs as it seems the budget is more than twice what was initially reported.
While initial estimates placed the budget at around $130 million, Forbes is reporting that Disney revealed the budget to be about $275 million.
The film spent that money over two years. Marvel also got a $55 million subsidy from the United Kingdom to film there. Subtracting the subsidy it still has to recoup the other $220 million after marketing, theater cuts, and residuals to break even. Usually, they estimate 2X the budget for breakeven, meaning it needs to make at least $440 million before factoring in marketing. Then, it likely needs to make over $600 -$700 million to make a profit.
This is all while many fans are growing tired of the MCU. The demand for this film isn’t there like it used to be. Brand fatigue seems to be creeping in and diminishing audiences. Plus, this film features two characters that have only been showcased in the MCU through Disney+ shows: Ms. Marvel and Monica Rambeau. Frankly, “Ms. Marvel” did not perform well, becoming one of the lowest-performing Marvel shows on Disney+.
One advantage Disney may have is that many films have been pushed back till 2024 over the Hollywood strikes, leaving the movie with far less competition. The demand may increase as moviegoers aren’t getting new films and still want to go to the theater. Disney is likely banking on this.
Disney also got “The Marvels” into IMAX theaters when “Dune 2” was pushed back. This may also boost the box office for this film as well.
We shall see how this plays out when “The Marvels” releases on November 10. But, the movie will have to do incredibly well to break even and, better yet, to make a profit.
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