‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Early Box Office Predictions Are Not Looking Great

Disney is gearing up for the release of its first theatrical “Star Wars” film in several years, and it’s not looking good.  Early box office estimates for “The Mandalorian and Grogu” are not great, however, the film has about six weeks until its release on May 22.

What are the current predictions?

As of April, 2026, estimates put the film’s domestic opening at $70-$85 million. While that seems like a solid number, it’s lower than the opening of “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” which opened to over $100 million.

How much did the film cost?

Estimates say it cost around $166 million, but we have seen that the totals for “Star Wars” films/shows usually come in higher. Even if the number is correct, industry experts think it will need about $425+ million to break even.

It could break even and make some money, but I doubt it will hit the totals seen with other Disney “Star Wars” films.

Why are the estimates low?

People don’t seem all that excited for this movie. If Disney had pushed a Mandalorian film at the height of the show’s popularity, it likely would have done well, but many checked out after the last season, and many feel this will be a theatrical version of another season. Many will likely wait until it moves to Disney+, where they can watch it like a regular season release.

Other films like “Masters of the Universe” and “Toy Story 5” are releasing within a month of “The Mandalorian and Grogu” as well.

A recent Fandango survey of the 10 Summer Must-See Movies of 2026 doesn’t even include the “Star Wars” film. 

5,000 people surveyed chose these movies as their top 10 for Summer 2026.

1. Toy Story 5 (Disney)
2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony Pictures/Marvel)
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney/20th Century Studios)
4. The Odyssey (Universal)
5. Scary Movie (2026) (Paramount)
6. Moana (2026) (Disney)
7. Minions & Monsters (Universal)
8. Mortal Kombat II (Warner)
9. Supergirl (Warner)
10. Insidious: The Bleeding World (Sony/Blumhouse)

This does not bode well for “The Mandalorian and Grogu”.

Since it was a streaming service show, most people will continue to watch it online.

Rumors indicate that Disney is going all out for CinemaCon next week. The demand for Disney-owned IP is there, but not for “Star Wars”.

I think audiences have finally grown tired of Pedro Pascal, too.

Disney has done what we thought no one could ever do — destroy “Star Wars.” Their best shot is “Starfighter” with Ryan Gosling coming out in May 2027.

What do you think? Comment and let us know!