NOAA Reaffirms Forecast: 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Still on Track for Above-Normal Activity

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is proving to be nothing short of dynamic. As the calendar progresses towards the historical peak of the season (August through October), NOAA has reaffirmed its prediction that this year’s hurricane activity remains on track to be above-normal.

Hurricane season in Florida runs from June-November.  The likelihood of these storms increases from mid-August through late October.

What NOAA Is Forecasting

In its latest update on August 7, NOAA revised its predictions, now calling for:

• 13–18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 5–9 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
• 2–5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph

This outlook aligns with the initial May forecast, which projected a 60% chance of above-normal hurricane activity, compared to a 35% likelihood of a near-normal season and 15% chance of a below-normal outcome.

Environmental Conditions Fueling Forecast

Several critical atmospheric and oceanic trends support the heightened storm expectations:

• Warm ocean temperatures, especially in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, are providing ample energy for storm development.
• Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions—neither El Niño nor La Niña—further favor increased activity, unlike El Niño years, which tend to suppress storms.

Entering the Season’s Heightened Phase

While the season got off to a slow start—marked by delayed storm formation—activity has begun intensifying:

• Tropical Storm Dexter, the fourth named storm, formed in early August and is currently moving northeast away from the U.S., reducing immediate national threats.
• Multiple tropical disturbances are under observation, including one in the central Atlantic with a high likelihood of formation—potentially becoming a hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands. That storm is being called Tropical Strom Erin.

This reaffirmed forecast serves as a wake-up call for coastal and inland communities alike. NOAA stresses the importance of early preparedness—anticipating risks and readying plans before alerts or watches are issued.