Mufasa: The Lion King Could Get Beaten By Sonic 3 At The Box Office Next Month

Disney is releasing Mufasa: The Lion King in December and it’s starting to look like it will get beaten at the box office by Sonic 3. Both films open on the same day, December 20, 2024.

Disney has a live-action problem. With each film, its returns dwindle, and now the unthinkable may happen. According to early pre-ticket sales, a “Lion King” film could be beaten by a video game hedgehog. Of course, pre-ticket sales do not mean final numbers.

Fans are seemingly checking out from Disney’s endless live-action reimaginings of popular animated films. While “Lilo and Stitch” may still do well, it looks increasingly like “Snow White” will not. “The Little Mermaid” was heavily marketed, and it did not make much money after expenses.

It doesn’t help that fans feel the new “Mufasa: The Lion King” is “retconning” the original “Lion King” film by making Mufasa an orphan. In the original film, he talks about all the previous kings as if he were a direct descendant. While many are not bothered by the change, many other fans are.

Mostly, fans seem to be over the live-action remakes.

Yes, “Sonic 3” is another live-action film, but it isn’t a remake of a better animated film.

Now, early estimates have “Sonic 3” either tied with “Mufasa: The Lion King” or beating it at the box office.

The Hollywood Reporter says National Research Group estimates have  “Sonic 3” outperforming “Mufasa: The Lion King” by $5 million, but the numbers are still very close, and they could shift. According to the current numbers, which still have weeks to go, “Sonic 3” will open to $55 million for December 20-22, while the new “Lion King” film is estimated at $50 million.

If that is all “Mufasa: The Lion King” does at release, it’s a far cry from 2019 when the live-action “Lion King” opened with almost $192 million domestically and went on to do $1.6 billion globally.

“Sonic the Hedgehog” only opened with $58 million in 2020 and likely was cut short due to the pandemic. Two years later, the second “Sonic” film opened to $72.1 million domestically.

It should be a David vs. Goliath story regarding opening totals, but the estimates have them neck and neck in the box office race.

Both films have big celebrity voice actors

Both films boast the draw of celebrity voice actors. “Mufasa” stars Beyoncé Knowles, Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, John Kani, and Anika Noni, with songs by Lin Manuel Miranda.

“Sonic 3” is going to have Keanu Reeves as Shadow as well as Jim Carrey, Idris Elba, Ben Schwartz, Krysten Ritter, James Marsden, and Tika Sumpter. Reeves as Shadow the Hedgehog is going to be a draw.

Who will win?

It’s too early to tell. Often, these early tracking metrics are off. They have previously predicted a big opening, and closer to a film debut, they lower estimates. The opposite has also happened.

We will not definitively know the outcome until the films open and the first weekend is over. Many people don’t purchase tickets until the day they want to go or a couple of days before. Many will likely watch both films.

Hopefully, both films will perform better than the estimates because these numbers are low, especially for “Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King,” given the massive debut of the live-action “Lion King” in 2019.

Check Out the Trailers!

Here are the trailers for both films.

“Mufasa: The Lion King”

Synopsis: “Exploring the unlikely rise of the beloved king of the Pride Lands, “Mufasa: The Lion King” enlists Rafiki to relay the legend of Mufasa to young lion cub Kiara, daughter of Simba and Nala, with Timon and Pumbaa lending their signature schtick. Told in flashbacks, the story introduces Mufasa as an orphaned cub, lost and alone until he meets a sympathetic lion named Taka—the heir to a royal bloodline. The chance meeting sets in motion an expansive journey of an extraordinary group of misfits searching for their destiny—their bonds will be tested as they work together to evade a threatening and deadly foe.”

“Sonic 3”

Synopsis: “Sonic the Hedgehog returns to the big screen this holiday season in his most thrilling adventure yet. Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails reunite against a powerful new adversary, Shadow, a mysterious villain with powers unlike anything they have faced before. With their abilities outmatched in every way, Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely alliance in hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting the planet.”

Personally, I only want to see “Sonic 3.”

What do you think? Which film will prevail?

Which one do you want to see?

Comment and let us know!

Sources: The Hollywood Reporter, Comicbook.com