Disney World forecast: 83 Tuesday, 63 Saturday as cold air arrives

The National Weather Service expects Disney World’s high to drop 20 degrees between Tuesday and Saturday. Saturday’s sold-out Jollywood Nights could start at 55 degrees and hit 51 by midnight.

Disney World gets two more summer-ish days before fall finally shows up.

The National Weather Service forecast for Bay Lake, home of Disney World, calls for a high of 82 degrees Monday and 83 Tuesday. By Saturday, Nov. 14, the high is 63, with a low near 47 that night. That’s the forecast as of 10:14 a.m. Monday.

Saturday’s number is about 17 degrees below normal. Orlando’s typical high for early November is 80, per the weather service’s climate report for Orlando International Airport.

Blame a strong cold front due late Thursday or Friday. Forecasters at the NWS office in Melbourne wrote Sunday that “the coolest air of the autumn season thus far” should follow it. WFTV, FOX 35 and WKMG News 6 all show the same late-week drop.

Rain is the smaller story, for now. The weather service gives Wednesday afternoon a 30% chance of showers and storms, and Thursday a 20% chance of showers. FOX 35’s Sunday forecast had 30% to 40% for both days.

That could change. NWS forecasters wrote “it is likely that rain chances will increase as we get closer,” and said strong storms are possible Thursday into Friday if the air turns more unstable. Forecasts change, so check again before you pack.

What’s the Disney World weather forecast this week?

The NWS Bay Lake forecast, day by day:

• Monday, Nov. 9: Mostly sunny, high 82. Dry for tonight’s Very Merry Christmas Party.

• Tuesday, Nov. 10: Patchy fog before 9 a.m., then partly sunny, high 83. Another good water park day.

• Wednesday, Nov. 11 (Veterans Day): Mostly cloudy, high 82, 30% chance of showers and storms after 1 p.m.

• Thursday, Nov. 12: Mostly cloudy, high 77, 20% chance of showers, gusts up to 25 mph.

• Friday, Nov. 13: Front moves through. Partly sunny, high 68, gusts up to 30 mph. Low 47.

• Saturday, Nov. 14: Sunny, high 63, northwest gusts up to 20 mph. Low 47.

• Sunday, Nov. 15: Sunny, high 68.

WFTV’s Sunday evening forecast lines up: a few late showers Wednesday, scattered showers Thursday, then highs in the 60s Friday through Sunday.

Will Blizzard Beach close for the cold?

Disney hasn’t said. Blizzard Beach is Disney World’s only open water park right now, since Typhoon Lagoon is closed for refurbishment until Jan. 27, 2027.

The pools are heated to about 81 degrees, Disney’s Blizzard Beach page says. It also warns that “temporary, day-of closures may occur.”

Disney closed Blizzard Beach on Feb. 23 and 24 this year, when highs were forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s, WDWNT reported. It closed again March 17, with a forecast high of 61.

Saturday’s 63 with a gusty breeze sits right in that range. If slides are the plan, Tuesday is the safer bet.

How cold will it be for Very Merry and Jollywood party nights?

Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party runs Monday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday this week at Magic Kingdom, and every November night is sold out. Jollywood Nights takes over Hollywood Studios on Saturday, also sold out.

Here’s the weather service’s hourly forecast for party hours:

• Monday: 73 at 7 p.m., 66 by midnight, dry.

• Thursday: 71 at 7 p.m., 67 by midnight, 11% shower chance.

• Friday: 59 at 7 p.m., 54 by midnight, northwest wind around 10 mph.

• Saturday (Jollywood, 7:30 p.m. to 12:30 a.m.): 55 at 7 p.m., 51 by midnight, clear.

Hourly numbers for Sunday night aren’t out yet. WFTV has Sunday morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

Disney’s party page says the Very Merry parade, fireworks and stage show are “subject to cancellation in case of inclement or incoming weather.” Jollywood “will continue in the event of most inclement weather,” Disney says, though outdoor shows Glisten! and Twilight Soiree at the Tip Top Club may lose performances.

Pack a real jacket for Friday and Saturday. Shorts at 51 degrees is a choice.

Is the Central Florida flooding over?

Not along the St. Johns River. FOX 35 reported Sunday that River Flood Warnings remain at Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, DeLand and Astor, with water slowly receding this week. It’s runoff from the heavy rain that put Disney World under a flood watch Nov. 2.

Orlando’s airport has logged 2.57 inches of rain so far this month. Normal through Nov. 7 is 0.47 inches, per the weather service.

Beach day after the parks? The weather service has a High Risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches. “Please stay out of the ocean!” it said.

Article compiled and written by Kambrea Pratt (editor-in-chief), Derek Gibbs (beat editor) and the Pirates & Princesses newsroom. Pirates & Princesses is part of WebReef Media.

Pirates and Princesses is your destination for Disney news, theme park updates, and the pop culture you love. From Disney cruises and travel tips to Disney fashion, food, collectibles, and movie news, PNP covers it all. Visit us at piratesandprincesses.net for daily coverage. Follow PNP on Facebook and Instagram, and listen to the Pirates & Princesses podcast on Apple Podcasts and YouTube.

Hat Tips:

• National Weather Service Melbourne (Nov. 8 and 9, 2026), the Bay Lake seven-day and hourly forecasts, the forecast discussion, rain chances, rip current risk and Orlando climate normals

• WFTV (Nov. 8, 2026), the Wednesday to Sunday forecast and Sunday lows

• FOX 35 Orlando (Nov. 8, 2026), the 30% to 40% rain chances and St. Johns River flood warnings

• WKMG News 6 (Nov. 6 and 7, 2026), the two cold fronts and next weekend’s 60s and 40s

• WFLA (Nov. 8, 2026), the coldest-air-of-the-season timing

• WDWNT (Feb. 20 and March 17, 2026), Blizzard Beach’s cold-weather closures

• Walt Disney World (Nov. 8, 2026), Blizzard Beach pool temperature and closure policy, Very Merry party dates and weather policy

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