Disney is losing an estimated $30 million in revenue each week amid its ongoing carriage dispute with YouTube TV, according to a new analysis by Morgan Stanley.
The blackout, which began on October 30, has kept Disney-owned channels, including ESPN and ABC, off the Google-owned YouTube TV streaming service for more than a week. The financial hit comes as the two companies remain deadlocked over distribution rates, leaving millions of subscribers without access to Disney’s sports and entertainment networks.
Disney’s Estimated Financial Losses
In a research note published Sunday, Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne projected that Disney could lose approximately $60 million in total revenue if the standoff lasts two full weeks. This means that if the analysis were broken down further, it would mean a loss in carriage fees of $30 million per week, or about $4.3 million per day.
Swinburne also adjusted his forecast for Disney’s quarterly net income, cutting his estimate by $25 million, from $1.55 billion to $1.52 billion, which is about two cents per share. Disney will make its quarterly earnings report on Thursday.
Sports Fans Hardest Hit By Blackout
The blackout has been particularly challenging for sports fans, who have missed major games like “Monday Night Football” and other live sporting events on ESPN.
Until a new agreement is reached, YouTube TV subscribers will continue to lose access to Disney’s key channels, including:
- ESPN and its sister networks (ESPN2, ESPNU, and ESPN News)
- ABC and local ABC affiliates
- FX and Freeform
- National Geographic and Nat Geo Wild
YouTube Is Taking A Larger Hit With $20 Rebate
YouTube TV is not coming out of the blackout unscathed. Yesterday, Google offered YouTube TV subscribers a $20 bill credit to make up for the inconvenience. This credit can be applied to next month’s bill (for current, unpaused customers only).
According to Business Insider, this could cost Google up to $200 million if all 10 million subscribers took the $20 credit. This is unlikely, but many will, and it could cost them more than Disney.
It is in both entities’ best interest to end this impasse as soon as possible.
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