Did ‘Thunderbolts’ Strike Gold or Strike Out at the Box Office?

Opening to $76 million domestic, Marvel’s anti-hero ensemble opens above some expectations but below blockbusters, revealing the studio’s shifting fortunes.

Disney and Marvel Studios’ latest MCU entry, Thunderbolts, delivered a box office debut that was neither a thunderous triumph nor a total fizzle. Opening to $76 million in the U.S. and $162 million globally over the May 2-4, 2025 weekend, the film landed in a respectable middle ground for Marvel—a notable improvement over recent flops, but far from the stratosphere of its biggest hits.

How Thunderbolts Stacks Up

With a projected domestic range of $70 to $90 million, Thunderbolts hit the lower end of its expectations. Its $11 million Thursday preview haul edged out Shang-Chi ($8.8M) but trailed behind Captain America: Brave New World ($12M), signaling modest enthusiasm heading into the weekend.

The film’s $76 million domestic total did manage to beat the entire U.S. box office for the same frame last year ($73.9M, per Box Office Mojo), offering some optimism amid 2025’s unpredictable theatrical landscape. Internationally, however, it fell just short of Deadline’s pre-release projection of $175 million, suggesting weaker pull overseas.

The Marvel Middle Tier

Comparisons to other recent MCU releases paint a complex picture:

• Deadpool & Wolverine (2024): Opened to a record-breaking $200 million domestically and ultimately crossed $1.3 billion worldwide, thanks to its R-rating, fan-favorite leads, and meta-humor nostalgia.

• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023): Opened to $106 million U.S., but plummeted -69% in its second weekend, ending with $476 million globally.

• Eternals (2021): Began with $71.2 million U.S., fell -62% week two, and closed at $402 million worldwide.

• The Marvels (2023): Posted the lowest MCU opening ever with $47 million U.S., and grossed only $206 million globally despite a $220 million budget.

By these metrics, Thunderbolts avoided disaster. It outperformed Marvel’s most recent bombs and showed better legs than Eternals or The Marvels. But it also proved that the brand alone isn’t enough to guarantee a nine-figure launch anymore—especially when the heroes are more “B-team” than Avengers.

Audience Reaction and Market Conditions

Thunderbolts earned an A- CinemaScore and a 75% PostTrak sequel interest rating, signaling general satisfaction among moviegoers. Demographics skewed 62% under 35, with a notably diverse turnout: 42% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 17% Black, and 10% Asian, according to Deadline.

Its mid-level success can be attributed to character familiarity (Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes) and the MCU’s overall brand recognition. Still, with competition looming—Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning are expected to open at $120M and $80M respectively over Memorial Day—Thunderbolts may struggle to hold momentum.

The Verdict: Not a Flop, Not a Smash

Compared to the worst of Marvel’s past—like 2008’s Punisher: War Zone ($10M gross on a $35M budget) or 2015’s Fantastic Four reboot ($168M worldwide on a $120M budget)—Thunderbolts is nowhere near disaster territory. Its performance shows that while the MCU can still draw solid numbers, the era of automatic $100M+ openings may be fading.

The film’s marketing leaned heavily on its gritty, ensemble tone—”Not Super. Not Heroes.”—and the chemistry of its cast, which helped distinguish it from glossier MCU fare. In a post-Endgame world, audiences seem more cautious, and Thunderbolts is a case study in tempered expectations.

Sources:

• Box Office: Thunderbolts Opens to $162M WW, $76M U.S., Deadline, May 4, 2025

• Weekend Preview: THUNDERBOLTS Tracking to $80M Opening Weekend*, Boxoffice Pro, April 30, 2025

• Marvel Cinematic Universe Franchise Box Office History, The Numbers, accessed May 4, 2025

• Eternals Box Office, Box Office Mojo, accessed May 4, 2025

• 15 Marvel Movies That Flopped at the Box Office, MovieWeb, February 8, 2024