It’s almost a month away from the release of Marvel’s next film “Captain America: Brave New World,” and early box office predictions offer a huge range that isn’t great.
The film is set to release on Valentine’s Day, and early predictions have the domestic opening coming in as low as $81 million, with the high end at $107 million. Long range isn’t much better as the prediction there is $195 – $280 million domestic.
Of course, that is not the whole picture as the international box office is not factored in, but that total isn’t great either.
Recent Marvel box office openings,
“Deadpool & Wolverine” opened to $205 million domestically, which is within the projection of the new Captain America’s whole North American run.
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which was Marvel’s one hit in 2023, opened at $118.4 million domestically.
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” brought in about $181 million for its domestic opening weekend.
$81 million is not a great opening in the grand scheme of things.
Why is “Captain America: Brave New World” opening range lower?
There are a few reasons the film may open so low.
First of all it could be due to the change to Captain America.
For years, Cap was played by Chris Evans, and now Captain America is played by Anthony Mackie, who portrayed Falcon in the MCU Avengers films. After the events of “Avengers: Endgame,” Sam Wilson was given the shield and made Captain America, but he does not have the supersoldier serum.
His debut as the new Captain America took place in the show “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” on Disney+, so if people did not watch that series they may be lost as to why the mantle is now with a new character. Since this show was in the earlier days of Disney+, many may not have watched it, much like “WandaVision” leading into “Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness.”
The film has been in limbo for years.
A new Captain America film with Sam Wilson’s Cap was announced back in 2021. Originally it was to be called “Captain America: New World Order,” but that was later changed to “Captain America: Brave New World.”
It was originally meant to be released on May 3, 2024, but that was pushed to July 26, 2024, and then finally, it ended up on February 14, 2025.
Reshoot rumors and stories of audience reactions to screenings.
A few reports indicate that the film was not well received during test screenings and that three important sections were being cut. This led to Matthew Orton being hired to rewrite those segments for reshoots which took place last year. Giancarlo Esposito was also brought in to play the villain during the changes.
All of these things add to the seeming lack of interest in the new film.
How will it actually do?
Honestly, we don’t know. Predictions are simply predictions; sometimes they are too high, and sometimes they are too low. When it came to “Deadpool & Wolverine” estimates were lower than the actual opening numbers. “The Marvels” already had a low opening estimate and managed to come in below those expectations.
It will depend on the audience demand and if people haven’t already moved on after the film took so long to release.
Marvel fatigue is also a factor. Many people are tired and they simply might not show up.
Basically, we won’t know till we know.
What do you think? Comment and let us know!
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